Developing a model for time-cost trade-off optimization problem considering overdraft issue in uncertain environments

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Civil Engineering, Qazvin Branch, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin, Iran

2 School of Industrial Engineering, Iran University of Science and Technology, Tehran, Iran

3 Faculty of Civil Engineering ,Payame Noor University, Iran, Tehran

Abstract

In project management, the time–cost problem plays a key role in planning and development. However, this problem is coped with the uncertainties resulted from an integral component of project cost and duration estimates. Often techniques are disable to formulate such uncertainty. Therefore, it is necessary to deveop a model that can take into account the uncertainty imposed by projects. To achieving the aim, Monte Carlo simulation technique is employed to analize the uncertainties arisen from the project cost and time estimations. To offer a trade-off between project time and cost, an optimization technique based on the Gray Wolf Optimization algorithm is used. The next, a overdraft analysis is conducted to operationally investigate the contract for future finance. The proposed framework is capable of solving a time-cost problem while the uncertainty is associated with project cost and time. The results show that the developed model generates a more reliable and accurate result and diminishes the risks connected to projects.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Abdel-Basset, M., Ali, M., & Atef, A. (2020). Uncertainty assessments of linear time-cost tradeoffs using neutrosophic set. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 141, 106286.
Afshar, A., & Kalhor, E. (2011). AN EXTENSION TO STOCHASTIC TIME-COST TRADE-OFF PROBLEM OPTIMIZATION WITH DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW. Iran University of Science & Technology, 1(4), 557-570.
Agdas, D., Warne, D. J., Osio-Norgaard, J., & Masters, F. J. (2018). Utility of genetic algorithms for solving large-scale construction time-cost trade-off problems. Journal of computing in civil engineering, 32(1), 04017072.
Aghajani, F., & Mirzapour Al-e-hashem, M. J. (2020). A multi-objective mathematical model for production-distribution scheduling problem. Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 13(Special issue: 16th International Industrial Engineering Conference), 121-132.
Ahmadi Najl, A., Haghighi, A., & Vali Samani, H. (2016). Driving optimum trade-off between the benefits and costs of interbasin water transfer projects. Iran University of Science & Technology, 6(2), 173-185.
Akin, F. D., Polat, G., Turkoglu, H., & Damci, A. (2021). A crashing-based time-cost trade-off model considering quality cost and contract clauses. International Journal of Construction Management, 1-10.
Al-Araidah, O., Okudan-Kremer, G., Gunay, E. E., & Chu, C.-Y. (2021). A Monte Carlo simulation to estimate fatigue allowance for female order pickers in high traffic manual picking systems. International Journal of Production Research, 59(15), 4711-4722.
Al-Issa, A., & Zayed, T. (2007). Projects cash flow factors-contractor perspective. Paper presented at the Construction Research Congress (CRC) Conference.
Al-Zarrad, M. A., & Fonseca, D. (2018). A new model to improve project time-cost trade-off in uncertain environments Contemporary Issues and Research in Operations Management: IntechOpen.
Albayrak, G. (2020). Novel hybrid method in time–cost trade-off for resource-constrained construction projects. Iranian Journal of Science and Technology, Transactions of Civil Engineering, 44(4), 1295-1307.
Ammar, M. A. (2020). Efficient modeling of time-cost trade-off problem by eliminating redundant paths. International Journal of Construction Management, 20(7), 812-821.
Azaron, A., & Tavakkoli-Moghaddam, R. (2006). A multi-objective resource allocation problem in dynamic PERT networks. Applied mathematics and computation, 181(1), 163-174.
Ballesteros-Pérez, P., Elamrousy, K. M., & González-Cruz, M. C. (2019). Non-linear time-cost trade-off models of activity crashing: Application to construction scheduling and project compression with fast-tracking. Automation in Construction, 97, 229-240.
Bashford, H. H. (1996). Small business in the construction industry. Practice Periodical on Structural Design and Construction, 1(3), 71-73.
Bettemir, Ö. H., & Talat Birgönül, M. (2017). Network analysis algorithm for the solution of discrete time-cost trade-off problem. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 21(4), 1047-1058.
Blum, C., & Groß, R. (2015). Swarm intelligence in optimization and robotics Springer handbook of computational intelligence (pp. 1291-1309): Springer.
Bruni, M. E., Beraldi, P., Guerriero, F., & Pinto, E. (2011). A heuristic approach for resource constrained project scheduling with uncertain activity durations. Computers & Operations Research, 38(9), 1305-1318.
Csordas, H. (2017). An overview of the time-cost trade-off problems of project planning. Procedia Engineering, 196, 323-326.
Deı̌neko, V. G., & Woeginger, G. J. (2001). Hardness of approximation of the discrete time-cost tradeoff problem. Operations Research Letters, 29(5), 207-210.
El-Sayegh, S. M., & Al-Haj, R. (2017). A new framework for time-cost trade-off considering float loss impact. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction.
Elkalla, I., Elbeltagi, E., & El Shikh, M. (2021). Solving fuzzy time–cost trade-off in construction projects using linear programming. Journal of The Institution of Engineers (India): Series A, 102(1), 267-278.
ElMenshawy, M., & Marzouk, M. (2021). Automated BIM schedule generation approach for solving time–cost trade-off problems. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management.
Fan, K., You, W., & Li, Y. (2013). An effective modified binary particle swarm optimization (mBPSO) algorithm for multi-objective resource allocation problem (MORAP). Applied mathematics and computation, 221, 257-267.
Feylizadeh, M.R.,  Mahmoudi, A.,  Bagherpour, M.,  Li, D-F., (2018). Project crashing using a fuzzy multi-objective model considering time, cost, quality and risk under fast tracking technique: A case study. Journal of Intelligent & Fuzzy Systems: Applications in Engineering and Technology 35(3): 3615–3631 https://doi.org/10.3233/JIFS-18171
Gajul, B. V., & Desai, G. (2019). Application of Time Divisions Scheduling Techniques for Duration and Quantity based Project Control is a Vivacious Decision Process.
Ghosh, M., Kabir, G., & Hasin, M. A. A. (2017). Project time–cost trade-off: a Bayesian approach to update project time and cost estimates. International Journal of Management Science and Engineering Management, 12(3), 206-215.
Ghousi, R., Khanzadi, M., & Mohammadi Atashgah, K. (2018). A FLEXIBLE METHOD OF BUILDING CONSTRUCTION SAFETY RISK ASSESSMENT AND INVESTIGATING FINANCIAL ASPECTS OF SAFETY PROGRAM. Iran University of Science & Technology, 8(3), 433-452.
Haghighi, M. H., Mousavi, S. M., Antuchevičienė, J., & Mohagheghi, V. (2019). A new analytical methodology to handle time-cost trade-off problem with considering quality loss cost under interval-valued fuzzy uncertainty. Technological and Economic Development of Economy, 25(2), 277-299.
Harrison, R. L. (2010). Introduction to monte carlo simulation. Paper presented at the AIP conference proceedings.
Hazır, Ö., Erel, E., & Günalay, Y. (2011). Robust optimization models for the discrete time/cost trade-off problem. International Journal of Production Economics, 130(1), 87-95.
He, Z., He, H., Liu, R., & Wang, N. (2017). Variable neighbourhood search and tabu search for a discrete time/cost trade-off problem to minimize the maximal cash flow gap. Computers & Operations Research, 78, 564-577.
Janak, S. L., Lin, X., & Floudas, C. A. (2007). A new robust optimization approach for scheduling under uncertainty: II. Uncertainty with known probability distribution. Computers & chemical engineering, 31(3), 171-195.
Khamseh, A., Teimoury, E., & Shahanaghi, K. (2021). Integrating time and cost in dynamic optimization of supply chain recovery. Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 13(4), 124-141.
Klerides, E., & Hadjiconstantinou, E. (2010). A decomposition-based stochastic programming approach for the project scheduling problem under time/cost trade-off settings and uncertain durations. Computers & Operations Research, 37(12), 2131-2140.
Kumar Chandar, S. (2021). Grey Wolf optimization-Elman neural network model for stock price prediction. Soft Computing, 25(1), 649-658.
Leyman, P., Van Driessche, N., Vanhoucke, M., & De Causmaecker, P. (2019). The impact of solution representations on heuristic net present value optimization in discrete time/cost trade-off project scheduling with multiple cash flow and payment models. Computers & Operations Research, 103, 184-197.
Li, H., Xu, Z., & Wei, W. (2018). Bi-objective scheduling optimization for discrete time/cost trade-off in projects. Sustainability, 10(8), 2802.
Li, Y., Lin, X., & Liu, J. (2021). An improved gray wolf optimization algorithm to solve engineering problems. Sustainability, 13(6), 3208.
Lin, C.-L., & Lai, Y.-C. (2020). An improved time-cost trade-off model with optimal labor productivity. Journal of Civil Engineering and Management, 26(2), 113-130.
Liu, D., Li, H., Wang, H., Qi, C., & Rose, T. (2020). Discrete symbiotic organisms search method for solving large-scale time-cost trade-off problem in construction scheduling. Expert Systems with Applications, 148, 113230.
Maharana, D., & Kotecha, P. (2019). Optimization of job shop scheduling problem with grey wolf optimizer and JAYA algorithm Smart Innovations in Communication and Computational Sciences (pp. 47-58): Springer.
Mahmoudi, A., Feylizadeh, M.R. (2018), A grey mathematical model for crashing of projects by considering time, cost, quality, risk and law of diminishing returns, Grey Systems: Theory and Application, Vol. 8 No. 3, pp. 272-294. https://doi.org/10.1108/GS-12-2017-0042
Mahmoudi, A., Javed, S.A. (2020), Project scheduling by incorporating potential quality loss cost in time-cost tradeoff problems: The revised KKH model, Journal of Modelling in Management, Vol. 15 No. 3, pp. 1187-1204. https://doi.org/10.1108/JM2-12-2018-0208
Mirjalili, S., Mirjalili, S. M., & Lewis, A. (2014). Grey wolf optimizer. Advances in engineering software, 69, 46-61.
Orm, M. B., & Jeunet, J. (2018). Time cost quality trade-off problems: a survey exploring the assessment of quality. Computers & Industrial Engineering, 118, 319-328.
Panwar, A., & Jha, K. N. (2021). Integrating quality and safety in construction scheduling time-cost trade-off model. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 147(2), 04020160.
Phillips Jr, S., & Dessouky, M. I. (1977). Solving the project time/cost tradeoff problem using the minimal cut concept. Management science, 24(4), 393-400.
Precup, R.-E., David, R.-C., & Petriu, E. M. (2016). Grey wolf optimizer algorithm-based tuning of fuzzy control systems with reduced parametric sensitivity. IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics, 64(1), 527-534.
Shakarami, M., & Davoudkhani, I. F. (2016). Wide-area power system stabilizer design based on grey wolf optimization algorithm considering the time delay. Electric Power Systems Research, 133, 149-159.
Sharma, Y., & Saikia, L. C. (2015). Automatic generation control of a multi-area ST–Thermal power system using Grey Wolf Optimizer algorithm based classical controllers. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 73, 853-862.
Shou, Y., & Wang, W. (2012). Robust optimization-based genetic algorithm for project scheduling with stochastic activity durations. International Information Institute (Tokyo). Information, 15(10), 4049.
Singh, S., & Singh, S. (2021). Time–cost trade-off in a multi-choice assignment problem. Engineering Optimization, 1-17.
Sonmez, R., Aminbakhsh, S., & Atan, T. (2020). Activity uncrashing heuristic with noncritical activity rescheduling method for the discrete time-cost trade-off problem. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 146(8), 04020084.
Sorensen, K., Sevaux, M., & Glover, F. (2017). A history of metaheuristics. arXiv preprint arXiv:1704.00853.
Tao, L., Su, X., Javed, S.A., (2022). Time-cost trade-off model in GERT-type network with characteristic function for project management,Computers & Industrial Engineering, Volume 169, , 108222. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2022.108222.
Tavassoli, L. S., Massah, R., Montazeri, A., Mirmozaffari, M., Jiang, G.-J., & Chen, H.-X. (2021). A New Multiobjective Time-Cost Trade-Off for Scheduling Maintenance Problem in a Series-Parallel System. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2021.
Toğan, V., & Eirgash, M. A. (2019). Time-Cost Trade-off Optimization of Construction Projects using Teaching Learning Based Optimization. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, 23(1), 10-20.
TOĞAN, V., & EIRGASH, M. A. (2019). Time-cost trade-off optimization with a new initial population approach. Teknik Dergi, 30(6), 9561-9580.
Ulusoy, G., & Hazır, Ö. (2021). The Time/Cost Trade-off Problems An Introduction to Project Modeling and Planning (pp. 141-165): Springer.
Wang, H., Xia, H., Wang, T., Chang, L., Yang, Z., Zhai, J., & Zhang, Y. (2021). Research on an optimization of uncertainty in oilfield development planning. Paper presented at the IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science.
Wiesemann, W., Kuhn, D., & Rustem, B. (2010). Maximizing the net present value of a project under uncertainty. European Journal of Operational Research, 202(2), 356-367.
Wu, C. W., Brown, K. N., & Beck, J. C. (2009). Scheduling with uncertain durations: Modeling β-robust scheduling with constraints. Computers & Operations Research, 36(8), 2348-2356.
Yang, J. C., & Long, W. (2016). Improved grey wolf optimization algorithm for constrained mechanical design problems. Paper presented at the Applied Mechanics and Materials.
Yang, X.-S., Deb, S., & Fong, S. (2014). Metaheuristic algorithms: optimal balance of intensification and diversification. Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences, 8(3), 977.
Yao, X., Li, Z., Liu, L., & Cheng, X. (2019). Multi-threshold image segmentation based on improved grey wolf optimization algorithm. Paper presented at the IOP conference series: earth and environmental science.
Yin, S., Luo, H., & Ding, S. X. (2013). Real-time implementation of fault-tolerant control systems with performance optimization. IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics, 61(5), 2402-2411.
Zandebasiri, M., Vacik, H., Etongo, D., Dorfstetter, Y., Soosani, J., & Pourhashemi, M. (2019). Application of time-cost trade-off model in forest management projects: The case of Oak decline project. Journal of forest science, 65(12), 481-492.
Zayed, T., & Liu, Y. (2014). Cash flow modeling for construction projects. Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management.
Zhang, W., Zhang, Q., & Karimi, H. (2013). Seeking the important nodes of complex networks in product R&D team based on fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2013.
Zhang, Z., & Zhong, X. (2018). Time-cost trade-off resource-constrained project scheduling problem with stochastic duration and time crashing. International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences, 11(4), 390-419.
Zhou, J., Love, P. E., Wang, X., Teo, K. L., & Irani, Z. (2013). A review of methods and algorithms for optimizing construction scheduling. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 64(8), 1091-1105.

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 29 June 2022
  • Revise Date: 07 August 2022
  • Accept Date: 17 August 2022

Share

How to cite

Statistics