Self-Starting Control Chart and Post Signal Diagnostics for Monitoring Project Earned Value Management Indices

Document Type: Research Paper

Authors

Department of Industrial Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Shahed University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Earned value management (EVM) is a well-known approach in a project control system which uses some indices to track schedule and cost performance of a project. In this paper, a new statistical framework based on self-starting monitoring and change point estimation is proposed to monitor correlated EVM indices which are usually auto-correlated over time and non-normally distributed. Also, a new change point estimator is developed to find the real time of change in the indices mean. Furthermore, a new diagnosing method is presented to recognize the deviated mean index. The performance of the proposed methods is evaluated through simulation studies and an illustrative example.  

Keywords

Main Subjects


Acebes F, Pajares J, Galán JM, and López-Paredes A (2013) Beyond earned value management: A graphical framework for integrated cost, schedule and risk monitoring. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences 74(1):181-189.

Acebes F, Pajares J, Galán JM, and López-Paredes A (2014) A new approach for project control under uncertainty. Going back to the basics. International Journal of Project Management 32(3):423-34.

Acebes F, Pereda M, Poza D, Pajares J and Galán, JM (2015). Stochastic earned value analysis using Monte Carlo simulation and statistical learning techniques. International Journal of Project Management 33(7):1597-1609.

Acebes, F, Pajares, J., Galán, JM, and López-Paredes, A (2016) A project monitoring and control system using EVM and montecarlo simulation. Project Management and Engineering Research 4(1): 31-40.

Ahmad L,  Aslam M, and  Jun CH (2014) Designing of X-bar control charts based on process capability index using repetitive sampling. Transactions of the Institute of Measurement and Control 36(3):367-374.

Aliverdi R, MoslemiNaeni L, and Salehipour A (2013) Monitoring project duration and cost in a construction project by applying statistical quality control charts. International Journal of Project Management 31(3):411-423.

Anbari FT (2003) Earned value project management method and extensions. International Journal of Project Management 34(4):12–23.

Aslam M, Azam M, and Jun CH (2015) A new control chart for exponential distributed life using EWMA. Transactions of the Institute of Measurement and Control 35(2):205-219.

Băncescu M (2016) Controlling Project Schedule Progress, Using Control Charts. Cybernetics and Systems 47(7): 602-615.

Bauch GT, and Chung CA (2001) A statistical project control tool for engineering managers. Project Management Journal 32(3):37–44.

Burke R (2003) Project management planning and control techniques 4thed.

Chen HL (2014) Improving forecasting accuracy of project earned value metrics: linear modeling approach. Journal of Management in Engineering 30(2):135-145.

Cioffi DF (2006) Designing project management: a scientific notation and an improved formalism for earned value calculations. International Journal of Project Management 24(2):136–144.

Colin J and Vanhoucke M (2014) Setting tolerance limits for statistical project control using earned value management. Omega 49(1):107-122.

Colin J and Vanhoucke M (2015) Developing a framework for statistical process control approaches in project management. International Journal of Project Management33(6): 1289-1300.

Fleming QW and Coppelman JM (2005) Earned value project management 3th ed. Project Management Institute.

Henderson K (2004) Further developments in earned schedule. The Measurable News 1(1):15–22.

Leu SS and Lin YC (2008) Project performance evaluation based on statistical process control techniques. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management-ASCE 134(10):813–819.

Leu SS, Lin YC, Chen TA, and Ho YY (2006) Improving traditional earned value management by incorporating statistical process charts. Proceedings of ISARC, 275-280.

Lipke K (2003) Earned schedule: a breakthrough extension to earned value theory? A retrospective analysis of real project data. The Measurable News 1(2):13–23.

Lipke W (1999) Applying management reserve to software project management. Journal of Defense Software Engineering 17–21.

Lipke W (2002) A study of the normality of earned value management indicators. The Measurable News 4(1):1-16.

Lipke W (2011) Earned schedule application to small projects. PM World Today 13.

Lipke W and Vaughn J (2000) Statistical process control meets earned value. The Journal of Defense Software Engineering 13(6):16–20.

Lipke W, Zwikael O, Henderson K, and Anbari F (2009) Prediction of project outcome: The application of statistical methods to earned value management and earned schedule performance indexes. International Journal of Project Management 27(4):400-407.

Lombard P. (2007) Project scheduling and cost control: Planning, monitoring and controlling the baseline. Project Management Journal 39(2):115-115.

Marrero M Fonseca A, Falcon R, and Ramirez-de-Arellano A (2014) Schedule and cost control in dwelling construction using control charts. The Open Construction and Building Technology Journal, 8(1):63-79.

Martin EB and Morris AJ (1996) An overview of multivariate statistical process control in continuous and batch process performance monitoring. Transactions of the Institute of Measurement and Control 18(1):51-65.

MoslemiNaeni L and Salehipour A (2011) Evaluating fuzzy earned value indices and estimates by applying alpha cuts. Expert Systems with Applications 38(7):8193-8198.

MoslemiNaeni L, Shadrokh SH, and Salehipour A (2011) A fuzzy approach for the earned value management. International Journal of Project Management 29(6):764–772.

Nedumaran G, Pignatiello Jr, and Calvin JA (2000) Identifying the time of a step-change with χ2 control charts. Quality Engineering 13(2):153-159.

Noori S, Bagherpour M, and Zareei A (2008) Applying fuzzy control chart in earned value analysis: a new application. World Applied Sciences Journal 3(4):684-690.

Pajares J and Lopez-Paredes A (2011) An extension of the EVM analysis for project monitoring: The Cost Control Index and the Schedule Control Index. International Journal of Project Management 29(5):615-621.

Quesenberry CP (1991) SPC Q charts for start-up processes and short or long runs. Journal of Quality Technology 23(3):213-224.

Runger GC, Alt FB, and Montgomery DC (1996) Controlling multiple stream processes with principal components. International Journal of Production Research 34(11):2991–2999.

Twigg PM and Thomson M (1995) On-line noise estimation for adaptive SPC loop control Transactions of the Institute of Measurement and Control 17(3):112-119.

Wang D and Romagnoli JA (2005) Generalized T distribution and its applications to process data reconciliation and process monitoring. Transactions of the Institute of Measurement and Control 27(5):367-390.

Wang Q, Jiang N, Gou L, Che M, and Zhang R (2006) Practical experiences of cost/schedule measure through earned value management and statistical process control. Software Process Change 348-354.

Wei NC, Bao CP, Yao SY and Wang PS (2016)Earned value management views on improving performance of engineering of engineering project management. International Journal of Organizational Innovation (Online) 8(4):82-93.

Zheng QB and Bi X (2013) Optimization on earned value method combined with critical path. In Proceedings of 2013 4th International Asia Conference on Industrial Engineering and Management Innovation Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 707-715.