Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering

Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering

Forecasting and Comparative Analysis of Energy Consumption in Iran and the United States: Divergent Trends and Policy Insights

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
M. Khojaste-Sarakhsi 1
Seyed Mohammad Taghi Fatemi Ghomi 1
H. Dashtaki-Hesari 2
1 Department of Industrial Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Energy System Engineering, K. N. Toosi University of Technology
Abstract
This paper explores the energy consumption (EC) of Iran and the United States as representatives of developing and developed countries. It introduces an innovative hybrid forecasting model that combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA), Support Vector Regression (SVR), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) to predict EC trends for both countries until 2030.This approach fills a gap in the existing literature by integrating both advanced forecasting techniques and a comparative policy analysis, focusing on two countries with vastly different economic structures and energy policies. The model leverages key socio-economic indicators such as GDP, population, and energy trade data to generate accurate forecasts, with a mean absolute percentage error of 2.25% for Iran and 1.55% for the U.S. Through a comparative analysis, this study highlights the role of the "EC-economic growth nexus" and "Human development index" in explaining the disparities in per-capita EC between the two countries. It also identifies key challenges in Iran’s energy sector, such as its energy tariff system, energy-intensive industries, and limited access to energy-efficient technologies, offering critical policy recommendations to improve energy efficiency.
Keywords
Energy consumption
Forecasting
Energy policy
Iran
The United States
ARIMA
Support vector regression
Subjects
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  • Receive Date 09 July 2024
  • Revise Date 15 February 2025
  • Accept Date 23 February 2025