Identification and ranking risks of horizontal directional drilling for oil & gas wells by using fuzzy analytic network process, a case study for Gachsaran oil field wells

Document Type : Research Paper


Department of Industrial Engineering, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran


Risk ranking of Horizontal Directional Drilling (HDD) for gas and oil wells is a key criterion in the project feasibility, pricing and for introducing a risk management strategy that aims to reduce the number of failures in the installation phase and its negative consequences. HDD is currently widely used in drilling wells in Iran, but research in the area of identification and risks ranking of these projects has not been done so far. Therefore, this research will identify and ranks the HDD risks in the field of Gachsaran as the case study, by helping literature review and drilling experts and using statistical techniques and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. The method of the network analysis process, is a powerful tool in deciding uncertain topics for ranking the risks. The offered approach allows decision-makers to involve in the ranking process and use linguistic assessment in the ranking of HDD risks.


Main Subjects

Abdelgawad A.M., Watanabe K, Mohammed M and Takeuchi, S 2010. Estimating groundwater residence time using multiple regression model based on fluoride dissolution: an exploration of possibilities, Environmental Earth Sciences 60(3), 449-462.
Bennett, R.D., and Ariaratnam, S.T., 2008. Horizontal Directional Drilling Good Practices Guidelines (3rd ed.). Virginia: HDD Consortium, Arlington.
Bi, G., Feng, C., Ding, J., Khan, K. R. 2012. Estimating relative efficiency of DMU: Pareto Principle and Monte Carlo oriented DEA approach. Infor, 50(1), 44-57.
Carlin, M. C. 2014. A Comparative Analysis of Horizontal Directional Drilling Construction Methods in Mainland China. A Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy.
Gierczak, M, 2014 (1). The quantitative risk assessment of MINI, MIDI and MAXI Horizontal Directional Drilling Projects applying Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 43  67–77.
Gierczak, M, 2014 (2). The qualitative risk assessment of MINI, MIDI and MAXI horizontal directional drilling projects. Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology. 44  148–156.
Hashash, Y. M. A., & Javier, J. 2011. Evaluation of horizontal directional drilling (HDD). Urbana, Ill: Illinois Center for Transportation.
Hashemi, S.H., Karimi, A, Tavana, M. 2015. An integrated green supplier selection approach with analytic network process and improved Grey relational analysis, Int. J. Production Economics, 159, 178-191.
Kang, C.C., Feng, C.M. and Khan, H.A., 2005. Risk assessment for build-operate-transfer projects: A dynamic multi-objective programming approach. Computer and Operations Research, 32, 1633-1654.
KarimiAzari, A.R, Mousavi, N, Mousavi, S.F, Hosseini, S.B. 2011. Risk assessment model selection in construction industry. Expert Systems with Applications (38), 9105–9111.
Ma, B., Najafi, M., Shen, H., and Wu, L. 2010. Risk Evaluation for Maxi Horizontal Directional Drilling Crossing Projects. Journal of Pipeline Systems Engineering and Practice, 1(2), 91-97.
Mawford, N, 2009. Avoid Wellbore Stability Problems with Casing Drilling. E&P Journal, 18.
Moganti, P.Y., 2016. Safety Risk Investigation of Horizontal Directional Drilling Projects, Clemson University.
Nitro-Morote, A, Ruz-Vila, F. 2011. A fuzzy approach to construction project risk assessment. International Journal of Project Management, 220-231.
Önüt, S, Kara, S. S., Isik, E. 2009. Long term supplier selection using a combined fuzzy MCDM approach: A case study for a telecommunication company. Expert System with Applications, 36, 3887-3895.
Saaty, T. L. (1996). Decision making with dependence and feedback: The analytic network process (Vol. 4922). RWS Publication.
Skogdalen, J.S, Vinnem, J.E, 2012. Quantitative risk analysis of oil and gas drilling, using Deepwater Horizon as case study, Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 100  58–66.
Van Staveren, M. 2007. Uncertainty and ground conditions. A risk management approach. Burlington, Butterworth-Heinemann.
Wang F, Ren T, Tu S, Hungerford F, Aziz N, 2012. Implementation of underground long-hole directional drilling technology for greenhouse gas mitigation in Chinese coal mines. 11, 78-96.
Winter, J.C.F., 2013. Using the student’s t-test with extremely small sample sizes, Practical Assessment, Research & Evaluation, 18(10).
Zhang, P, Luo, P, Wu, Y, and Huang, Y, 2011. The Status, Development, and Key Technologies of Pipeline Directional Drill Project. Proceedings of the International Conference on Pipelines and Trenchless Technologies (pp. 2338-2349). Beijjing: American Society of Civil Engineers.
Zheng, J., An, M., and Smith, N.J., 2007. Application of a fuzzy based decision making methodology to construct project risk assessment. International Journal of Project Management, 25, 589-600.