A new approach to human error assessment in financial service based on the modified CREAM and DANP

Document Type : Research Paper


Department of Management, Faculty of Economics and Administrative sciences, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mshhad, Iran


The main purpose of this study is to identify and determine the most important sub-tasks of stockbroking that affect the reliability of human resources. The cognitive reliability and error analysis (CREAM) method has been used to calculate the human error. To consider the different effects of work condition factors for each condition performance common (CPC), they are weighted using the decision analytical network process (DANP) method. The highest amount of the detected errors related to execution error, interpretation error, and planning error are 67%, 25%, 8%, respectively and probability of total cognitive error in the task of "stockbroker" is 0.1414. Considering equal impact for all CPCs on performance reliability is the most important gap and limitation in most previous studies. In this study, the relationship between CPCs has been investigated using the DANP.  Moreover, the relationship between HEP and the work environment error are calculated by humans with the Napierian logarithm function. 


Main Subjects

Ahn, S., & Emek Kurt, R. (2020). Application of a CREAM-based framework to assess human reliability in emergency response to engine room fires on ships. Journal of Ocean Engineering, 216, 108078.
Aouni, B, D. ,., P´erez-Gladish, B., & Steuer, R. E. (2018). On the increasing importance of multiple criteria decision aid methods for portfolio selection. Journal of the Operational Research Society, 69(10), 1525-1542.
Arthur, J., Williams, R., & Delfabbro, P. (2018). The conceptual and empirical relationship between gambling, investing, and speculation. Journal of behavioral addictions, 5(4), 580-591.
Asadayoobi, N., Taghipour, S., & Jaber, M. (2022). Predicting human reliability based on probabilistic mission completion time using Bayesian Network. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 221.
Bafandegan Emroozi, V., Modares, A., & Mohemi, Z. (2022). Presenting a model for diagnosing the implementation of total quality management based on performance expansion model (Case: Simorgh Rail Transportation Company). Road. doi:10.22034/ROAD.2022.319629.2007
Bell, J., & Holroyd,, J. (2009). Review of human reliability assessment methods. Technical Report RR679. Health and Safety Executive. Derbyshire.
Cavalcante, R., Brasileiro, R. C., Souza, V., Nobrega, J. B., & Oliveira, A. L. (2016). Computational intelligence and financial markets: A survey and future directions. Expert Systems with Applications, 55, 194-211.
Chai, S., Yu, J., Du, Z., Jin, W., & Zhou, Q. (2011). Quantitative human reliability analysis methods and application of offshore engineering. J. Tianjin Univ, 44(10), 914–919.
Chen, X., Liu, X., & Qin, Y. (2021). An extended CREAM model based on analytic network process under the type-2 fuzzy environment. Quality and Reliability Engineering International,, 37(1), 284-308.
Chiu, W. Y., Tzeng,, G., & Li, , H. (2013). A new hybrid MCDM model combining DANP with VIKOR to improve e-store business. Knowledge-Based Systems, 37, 48-61.
Ciani, L., Guidi, G., & Patrizi, G. (2022). Human reliability in railway engineering: Literature review and bibliometric analysis of the last two decades. Safety Science, 151. doi.org/10.1016/j.ssci.2022.105755
Elidolu, G., Akyuz, E., Arslan, O., & Arslanoğlu, Y. (2022). Quantitative failure analysis for static electricity-related explosion and fire accidents on tanker vessels under fuzzy bow-tie CREAM approach. Engineering Failure Analysis, 131, 105917. doi:10.1016/j.engfailanal.2021.105917
Fakoor Saghih, A., & Modares, A. (2021). A new dynamic model to optimize the reliability of the series-parallel systems under warm standby components. Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization. doi:10.3934/jimo.2021189
He, X., Wang, Y., Shen, Z., & Huang, X. (2008). A simplified CREAM prospective quantification process and its application. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 93(2), 298-306. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2006.10.026
He, X., Wang, Y., Shen, Z., & Huang, X. (2008). A simplified CREAM prospective quantification process and its application. Reliability Engineering System Safety, 93(2), 298-306.
He, Y., Kuai, N.-S., Deng, L.-M., & He, X.-Y. (2021). A method for assessing Human Error Probability through physiological and psychological factors tests based on CREAM and its applications. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 215, 107884. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2021.107884
Hollnagel, E. (1998). Cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM). Amsterdam, Netherlands: Elsevier.
Hollnagel, E. (1998a). Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method (CREAM). Elsevier, Oxford.
IlkeSezer, S., Akyuz, E., & Arslan, O. (2022). An extended HEART Dempster–Shafer evidence theory approach to assess human reliability for the gas freeing process on chemical tankers. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 220. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2021.108275
Kim, I. (2000). Applicability of HRA to support advanced MMI design review. Nuclear Engineering Technology, 32(1), 88-98.
Kim, S., Ge, B., & M. Frangopol, D. (2019). Effective optimum maintenance planning with updating based on inspection information for fatigue-sensitive structures. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 58, 103003.
Konstandinidou, M., Nivolianitou, Z, Kiranoudis, C., & Markatos, N. (2006). A fuzzy modeling application of CREAM methodology for human reliability analysis. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 91(6), 706-716.
Kubota, R., Kiyokawa, K., Arazoe, M., Ito, H., Iijima, Y., Matsushima, H., & Shimokawa, H. (2001). Analysis of organisation-committed human error by extended CREAM. Cognition, Technology & Work, 3(2), 67-81.
Kumar, A., Rajakarunakaran, S., & Prabu, V. (2015). Human reliability analysis by cognitive approach for unloading process in an ALDS (Auto LPG Dispensing Station). Indian Journal of Science Technology, 8(26).
Lee, W. S., Huang, , A., Chang, , Y., & Cheng, , C. (2011). Analysis of decision-making factors for equity investment by DEMATEL and Analytic Network Process. Expert Systems with Applications, 38(7), 8375-8383.
Lin, C., Qi feng, X., & Huang, Y. f. (2022). An HFM-CREAM model for the assessment of human reliability and quantification. Quality and Reliability Engineering. doi:10.1002/qre.3081
Lin, e. (2021). analyzed the interface design of medical equipment based on human error using Operator Action Tree and CREAM. IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering.
Mahdi Rezaie, , F., Fakoor Saghih, A., & Motahari Farimani, N. (2020). A novel hybrid approach based on CREAM and fuzzy ANP to evaluate human resource reliability in urban railway. journal of Transportation Safety & Security. doi:10.1080/19439962.2020.1738611
Meshkati, N. (1991). Human factors in large-scale technological systems’ accidents: Three Mile Island, Bhopal. Chernobyl. Industrial Crisis Quarterly, 5(2), 133-54.
Modares, A., Bafandegan Emroozi, V., & Mohemmi, Z. (2021). Evaluate and control the factors affecting the equipment reliability with the approach Dynamic systems simulation, Case study: Ghaen Cement Factory‏. Journal of Quality Engineering and Management, 11(2), 89-106.
Modares, A., Motahari Farimani , N., & Bafandegan Emroozi, V. (2022). A new model to design the suppliers portfolio in newsvendor problem based on product reliability. Journal of Industrial and Management optimization. doi:10.3934/jimo.2022124
Modares, A., Motahari Farimani , N., & Bafandegan Emroozi, V. (2022). A vendor-managed inventory model based on optimal retailers selection and reliability of supply chain. Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization. doi:10.3934/jimo.2022078
Modares, A., Motahari Farimani, N., & Bafandegan Emroozi, V. (2022). A vendor-managed inventory model based on optimal retailers' selection and reliability of supply chain. Journal of Industrial and Management Optimization. doi:10.3934/jimo.2022078
Modares, A., Motahari Farimani, N., & Bafandegan Emroozi, V. (2022). Developing a Newsvendor Model based on the Relative Competence of Suppliers and Probable Group Decision-making. Industrial Management Journal, 14(1), 115-142. doi:doi:10.22059/IMJ.2022.331988.1007872
Morais, C., Yung, K., Johnson, K., Moura, R., Beer, M., & Patelli, E. (2022). Identification of human errors and influencing factors: A machine learning approach. Safety Science, 105528. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2021.105528
Morais, D. C., & Ahmeid, A. T. (2012). Group decision making on water resources based on analysis of individuals ranking. Omega, 40(1), 42-52.
Najafnejhad, E., Tavassoli Roodsari, M., Sepahrom,, S., & Jenabzadeh , M. (2021). A mathematical inventory model for a single-vendor multi-retailer supply chain based on the Vendor Management Inventory Policy. Int J Syst Assur Eng Manag, 12, 579-586. doi:10.1007/s13198-021-01120-z
Petruni, A., Giagloglou, E., Douglas, E., Geng, J., Chiara Leva, M., & Demichela, M. (2019). Applying Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to choose a human factors technique: Choosing the suitable Human Reliability Analysis technique for the automotive industry. Safety Science, 119, 229-239. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2017.05.007
Phillips, R., & Sagberg, F. (2014). What did you expect? CREAM analysis of hazardous incidents occurring on approach to rail signals. Safety Science, 66, 92-100. doi:10.1016/j. ssci.2014.02.003
Ramazanian, M., & Modares, A. (2011). Application of particle swarm optimization algorithm to aggregate production planning,. Asian journal of Business Management studies, 2(2), 44-54.
Shirali, G., Hosseinzadeh, T., Ahamadi angali, T., & Rostam Niakan Kalhori, S. (2019). Modifying a method for human reliability assessment based on CREAM-BN: A case study in the control room of a petrochemical plant. MethodsX, 6, 300-315. doi:10.1016/j.mex.2019.02.008
Uflaz, E., Celik, E., Aydin, M., Erdem, P., Akyuz, E., & Arslan, O. (2022). An extended human reliability analysing under fuzzy logic environment for ship navigation. Australian Journal of Maritime & Ocean Affairs. doi:10.1080/18366503.2022.2025687
Ung, S.-T. (2019). Evaluation of human error contribution to oil tanker collision using fault tree analysis and modified fuzzy Bayesian Network based CREAM. Ocean Engineering, 179, 159-172.
Whittingham, R. (2004). The blame machine: Why human error causes accidents. United Kingdom: Routledge: Abingdon.
Yao, K., Yan, S., & Tran, C. (2022). A Fuzzy CREAM Method for Human Reliability Analysis in Digital Main Control Room of Nuclear Power Plants. Nuclear Technology, 208(4), 761-774. doi:10.1080/00295450.2021.1947123
Yoshimura, K., Takemoto, T., Murata, S., & Mitomo, N. (2014). A Study for Adapting a Human Reliability Analysis Technique to Marine Accidents. Paper presented at the Proceedings of 12th International Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management Conference. .
Zare, A., Hoboubi, N., Farahbkhsh, S., & Jahangiri, M. (2022). Applying analytic hierarchy process and failure likelihood index method (AHP-FLIM) to assess human reliability in critical and sensitive jobs of a petrochemical industry. Heliyon, 8(5), e09509. doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2022.e09509
Zhang, D., Zhang a, J., & Lai , K.-K. (2009). An novel approach to supplier selection based on vague sets group decision. Expert Systems with Applications, 36, 9557-9563.
Zhang, R., & Tan, H. (2018). An integrated human reliability based decision pool generating and decision making method for power supply system in LNG terminal. Safety Science, 101, 86-97. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2017.08.010
Zhang, S., He, W., Chen, D., Chu, J., & Fan, H. (2019). A dynamic human reliability assessment approach for manned submersibles using PMV-CREAM. International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering, 11(2), 782-795. doi:10.1016/j.ijnaoe.2019.03.002
Zhao, Y., & Smidts, C. (2019). A method for systematically developing the knowledge base of reactor operators in nuclear power plants to support cognitive modeling of operator performance. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 186, 64-77.
Zheng, X., Bolton, M. L., Daly, C., & Biltekoff, E. (2020). The Development of A Next-Generation Human Reliability Analysis: Systems Analysis for Formal Pharmaceutical Human Reliability (SAFPHR). Reliability Engineering and System Safety. doi:10.1016/j.ress.2020.106927
Zhou, Q., Wong, Y., Loh, H., & Yuen, K. (2018). A fuzzy and Bayesian network CREAM model for human reliability analysis-The case of tanker shipping. Safety Science, 105, 149-157. doi:10.1016/j.ssci.2018.02.011
Volume 14, Issue 4 - Serial Number 4
November 2022
Pages 95-120
  • Receive Date: 23 November 2022
  • Revise Date: 28 December 2022
  • Accept Date: 08 January 2023
  • First Publish Date: 08 January 2023